Predicting Second Half Goals

CAN THE HALF TIME SCORE LINE HELP US
PREDICT SECOND HALF GOALS?

In the first part of our analysis, we took a look at the most common half time score lines and how this could help us with our first half football trading. If you missed it, you can read it here: Most Common First Half Score Lines

Today, we are taking the analysis further to see whether the half time scoreline can help inform our trading strategies in the second half.
So, can the first half score help us predict second half goals? Let’s find out…

To access the database and data used in this analysis, you will need to be a full member of Predictology.

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Last time out, we discovered that 0-0 was the most common half time score , yet had the lowest probability for a second half goal (74.14%), while the score line 0-3 had the highest probability of a second half goals.
Let’s now break this down in full.

Which Half Time Score Delivers The Most Second Half Goals?

As we can see from the table in the previous section, the best half time score lines for producing second half goals are

• 0-3 82.76% chance of 1 or more goals
• 1-2 81.50% chance of 1 or more goals
• 2-1 80.71% chance of 1 or more goals
• 4+ 80.25% chance of 1 or more goals
• 2-0 80.22% chance of 1 or more goals
• 0-2 80.11% chance of 1 or more goals

Next we are using our formula for converting our probabilities into decimal odds so we have a quick and easy reference point when looking at the goal markets at half time in any game.

As we’ve said previously, these probabilities should not be used as your sole decision maker. But it is a great way to reinforce a decision or support a planned bet or trade by checking if you also have value on your side in terms of the odds available.

The 1-0 / 0-1 scoreline is one that particular interests us due to the fact we can remove the 0-0 prospect, which we now know as the lowest probability scoreline for a game to have second half goals. It also interests us as several first half goals can make the market over react and think the higher score totals are more likely than the reality. It’s a nice sweet spot to consider.

For example, if the score is 1-0 we understand that the chance of 2, or even 3 goals in the second half are now, 43.60% and 18% respectively. So if we can find those markets priced above 2.29 and 5.56 then we have a potential value trading opportunity.

We also know that we’ve got over 78% chance of at least 1 goal which, depending on when that goal comes, which will offer the opportunity to hedge or trade out.

Does The Number Of First Half Goals Influence Second Half Goals?

Let’s now take a look at goals in general, rather than specific half time score lines.

The first interesting thing to note is that when we combine 1-0 / 0-1 it replaces zero goals as the most popular outcome in the first half. This is in line with both the general market averages of 1 goal in the first half, and our sample size, which is 1.16 goals.

Three and four goals in the first half have the strongest indicators of second half goals but they are going to be few and far between, accounting for just 9.2% of the sample size.

The other thing that you may noted is that basically, the more first half goals there are, the high the probability of second half goals, which is fairly logical. However, as indicated in our earlier post, there is quite a drop off from 1 goal to zero goals, in all areas.

If you’ve been struggling with your football trading, one simple change could be to avoid games which are 0-0 at half time, unless you have a very strong reason to get involved.

How To Use This Data To Predict Second Half Goals

There are numerous ways in which you can use this data to influence your football trading planning (let us know in the comments other ways that you may look to use this data, and also any markets or topics you’d like us to analyse in future), and we’ll share a couple of thought starters with you.

Firstly, the simplest way is to look for games where there has been exactly 1 goal in the first half. Then check the odds on Over 2.5 and if you find the price available to back at 2.29, then you have a value back to lay trade trade.

You can also apply the same approach on exactly 2 first half goals and then ensure that Over 3.5 is priced 2.23 or better.

The other way you may wish to apply these insights is to look to build a profitable Over 2.5 goal model using the Predictology System Builder. Once identified, you can look to delay your staking until half time and only bet or trade if the half time score is 1-0 or 0-1.

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