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Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.
Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.
His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.
If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here.
We are almost through July and things are starting to heat up in the race for the playoffs. For those of you who are not familiar, in the MLS, the winners of the season get the Supporters Shield. However this is not the most prestigious trophy awarded during the season. MLS Cup is awarded to the team that wins the knockout style tournament at the end of the season. This is important to note as it changes how teams will view the remaining games. Some of the top teams will be more likely to rest and rotate (as they are assured they will be in the playoffs). Other teams in the mid table will be pushing hard to get above or stay above the playoff line (7 teams in each conference make the playoffs). Finally, teams at the bottom of the standings will start preparing for next year by playing youngsters or trying newer systems. With that let’s get to this week’s picks.
MLS Betting Tips – Week 23
MLS Betting – Game Week 23 Preview
Los Angeles vs Seattle
I get it, the analytics favor LAFC, the eye test favors LAFC, the form favors LAFC, but 5.45 on the Sounders is way too high a number against anyone. Seattle is built to be a counter attack team at its core and for maybe the first time all season that’s what they will likely be in this one. All the pressure will be on LAFC to collect the maximum points at home which allows Seattle to sit back and play their game. In particular, LAFC have been obliterating teams in the second half but rarely have the lead at half time. I expect Seattle to get ahead in the first half and then hold on tight for the rest of the game. They pose enough threat on the counter that LAFC won’t be able to sell out and really put Seattle under heavy pressure at the back. An early goal the other way would obviously change the whole outlook, and LAFC are probably the better team, but there is always value in the Sounders as a dog.
Philadelphia Union vs Houston Dynamo
There is absolutely no chance Houston walks into Philly and comes out with a win. Philly may be the best defensive team in the history of the league as they have allowed just 15 goals in 22 games tied for the fewest goals allowed to this point in league history with the 2007 Dynamo. Houston is also a terrible road team, having won just 3 of the last 35 on the road. So the real risk in Philly to win odds is a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. If you want to be really safe, hedging the correct score will remove some of the liability but you should be safe in a Philly to win bet.
MLS Betting – Over 2.5 Goals Betting Odds
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati
I think there could be some carnage this week and we could get some results people wouldn’t necessarily expect. Inter Miami has been a phenomenal home team this season but they have been struggling overall. A very late goal salvaged a draw in Dallas, then they came back from 2-0 down to beat Charlotte but outside of those 4 points they haven’t collected anything else in 6 previous games during a tough July schedule. Now Luciano Acosta is back for Cincy, who were able to collect 2 points in 3 tough games without him. This is a massive match for both teams with Cincy being able to put a 5 point gap between themselves and the playoff line with a win, and Inter being able to equal Cincy for the final playoff spot if they win. Expect goals a-plenty in this one as well.
DC United vs Orlando City
We covered this on THAT betting podcast with Predictology last week, Austin is not getting enough credit for what they have been able to do this season. Yes, they have had some flukey goal luck that at some point should probably regress to the mean. However, they have done a ton of damage on the road already and have a bunch of home games coming up. They
welcome a Red Bulls team who has one eye on the USOC Semi next week against Orlando and isn’t particularly good in Texas anyway. The Red Bulls have won only 1 of their last 7 road games in the state of Texas, probably due to the fact that it is almost impossible to press as hard as they do for 90’ in the Texas heat. Austin is tough to beat at home and the Red Bulls could rotate.
Looking for More MLS Betting Insights And MLS Betting Tips?
You can listen to “THAT…Betting Podcast” or, by searching for “Predictology” or “That Betting Podcast” on Apple, Google or YouTube as well
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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.
