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Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.
Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.
His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.
If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here.
It’s rivalry week in the MLS which means some gigantic matchups are inbound. We are going to get into some of them in just a minute but first keep in mind that the long awaited transfer market is now open! The one exception to this is Lorenzo Insigne who has suffered a calf injury and is not expected to debut for a couple of weeks. Furthermore , we want to emphasize it can take a while to adjust to MLS. I have made this comment many times before but I don’t want our expectations to be too high of the impact these guys will make in the first few weeks. Guys like Bale, Criscito and Insigne who are essentially in their offseason, will now be thrown into a very physical league with travel that they have never really experienced before having played their entire careers in Europe. To put this into perspective, San Jose travels to Toronto this weekend. That’s the same distance as a flight from Naples to Doha, Qatar. Now onto the rivalries!
There are a few games that I think represent some value (Montreal over Sporting, Union over DC) but it’s rivalry week so we are going to stick to real nasty rivalries and try to find some value there.
MLS Betting Tips – Week 18
MLS Betting – Game Week 18 Preview – Rivalry Week
Seattle vs Portland (Cascadia Cup)
We start with the rivalry that for my money is the best one in the MLS. These two cities hate each other with a passion and they have both been soccer towns since the 1970’s which makes this one of the longest running feuds in the country. Recently, the home team has been absolutely terrible. Winning just 2 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams (That includes 9 road team wins in that span which is just absurd) If you exclude the playoffs (both teams won their home matches during the 2018 playoffs against each other) Portland is unbeaten in 6 straight in Seattle. I think that streak ends this weekend and Seattle gets the job done after resting everyone against Toronto. (Ruidiaz is a Portland killer, he is a question mark for this game but my gut says he wants to play)
Orlando vs Inter Miami (El Clasico Del Sol)
Technically the name is the Florida Derby, but I heard it called El Classico Del Sol on the broadcast last week and I like that name alot better. This is typically a game with goals in it, the last meeting was a 0-0 draw which was the first time in the first 7 meetings that either side kept a clean sheet against the other. Additionally, Exploria Stadium hasn’t had the same advantage for Orlando this year. They have lost 5 times at home this season after suffering only 3 losses combined the previous two seasons. One of the more even rivalries in the league Orlando holds the 3-2-2 edge but I think Miami has a chance to even up the series. I can’t believe I am saying this but Miami as a road underdog looks like value to me.
MLS Betting – Over 2.5 Goals Betting Odds
Houston vs Dallas (Texas Derby)
These two teams coined the name before Austin was a thing. They may revisit the name or they may just add Austin into the mix either way, these two teams have not liked each other for quite a while. Hector Herrea will be making his debut so expect a big crowd in addition to the rivalry game. I still think Dallas spoils the party. Dallas are a team that can really make life difficult on a midfield so this is not how you want to add in a new piece. That being said the home team has not lost since August of 2016 in this rivalry (16 matches) Houston has lost 8 of its 11 matches
since the Dallas game earlier in the year and they have not conceded a goal and gotten a point in the same match in that span.
Real Salt Lake vs Colorado (Rocky Mountain Cup)
RSL has lost only 1 of the last 21 home Rocky Mountain Cup games since 2007. Additionally, their 23 regular season wins over Colorado in that time period are the most by one team over another in the entire league. Colorado has lost 3 of 4 and the misery may continue at Rio Tinto on Saturday. RSL just keeps plugging away toward a playoff spot, something that would have shocked me to say at the beginning of the season.
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy (El Traffico)
You knew I wasn’t going to leave El Traffico out of this right? I don’t have a great read on this game one way or another, but this may be the most star studded MLS game of all time. We could potentially see Garreth Bale, Georgio Cheillini, Chicharito, and Carlos Vela (Douglas Costa is suspended) on the field in Los Angeles. In the game itself LA Galaxy has absolutely owned their new neighbors so far beating them 6 times already. LAFC probably has the better talent and they are at home, but how will all the pieces fit together and will they be able to overcome the curse of the Galaxy? You just have to wake up at 3 AM on a Saturday in order to find out!
Looking for More MLS Betting Insights And MLS Betting Tips?
You can listen to “THAT…Betting Podcast” on spotify here or, by searching for “Predictology” or “That Betting Podcast” on Apple, Google or YouTube as well
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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.
