MLS 2022 Week 16 | MLS Betting Tips

Sporting just won 6-0 in the midweek against Union Omaha, maybe that will kick start their offense? Well unfortunately this ain’t Union Omaha. Seattle is rolling in MLS play. Despite the draw against LAFC last weekend they were the better team against the Supporters Shield leaders. Now they play a team who is 2 points above the bottom despite playing 2 more games. One interesting note, SKC has not scored in the first 20 minutes of a match this season, and they have only conceded 2 in 17 matches so far. After the first 20 minutes they tend to crumble as only San Jose has conceded more goals than SKC. Expect Seattle to take control early and not give it up. There may be value on a 2+ goal Seattle win.

Looks up notes from last week. Ohh yeah, Charlotte is a terrible road team. They have only gotten 1 point on the road all season long. Oh wait hold on 2 points (grrrrr). Montreal looked pretty poor against Austin without Djorde Mihalovic, but this is still a tough team to beat at home. Charlotte won’t go from 1 point on the road all year to back to back results right?

The other heavyweight fight this week, the odds certainly reflect the midweek chaos from NYCFC. The defending champs are the pretty clear class of the East for me but they crumbled against New York Red Bulls mentally. The 2 red cards from wednesday night don’t carry over to MLS play but the frustration might. This is the biggest test Nick Cushing has faced as manager of this team. I would have had a ton of confidence in NYCFC to bounce back under Ronny Diela but we need to see if the interim coach has the same skill. From a Philly perspective, they are still missing all of their impact players off the bench to the U20 championship. Do they have the big punch at the end to knock out the champs? This game is filled with great stats, Philly have never beaten NYCFC twice in a row, 3 losses and 2 draws in 5 previous attempts. Union have drawn 7 of the last 8, the 2009 LA Galaxy are the only team in MLS history to draw 8 out of 9 (They ended up losing the MLS Cup on PKs). This is the first time since 2011 that two teams on unbeaten runs of 8 or more will square off in league play. Philadelphia has not allowed a goal from outside the box in its last 54 MLS games (translation Andre Blake is really good at soccer). After all that I think I’m going to lean NYCFC has too much talent on their side of the field to bet against them.

If you didn’t know, Jon and I have started a betting podcast in which we preview the weekend’s games called That Betting Podcast with Predictology. This is the one game that we disagree on. The numbers point to a resurgent New England team as the value play. However, I think the impact of Andres Cubas shouldn’t be underestimated. The 3 million dollar man is exactly the destroyer in the middle Vancouver was lacking. Watching him vs Carles Gil will be fascinating stuff. Also, since returning to BC Place last August Vancouver is 11-3-2 at home with both losses to Portland in rivalry games. That’s more home points than any other team in the MLS over that span. Give me the Caps to squeak one out 2-1.