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Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.
Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.
His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.
If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here.
It’s the final week before the international break (although there is one game next week during the break) and the teams are going to be looking forward to it with a little more than 1⁄3 of the season complete. 13 teams competed in the US Open Cup during the midweek and 6 of them moved on to the Quarterfinal round (Still a USL League 1 and USL Championship team left alive). Of those teams the two LA teams, Red Bulls, Charlotte and SKC used mostly first choice lineups. The next round of the Cup isn’t until late June so most teams will have a nice long break for the next few weeks. 6 games will be played over the international break but everyone else has the next two weeks completely off (Vancouver has two matches over the break). Some weeks it can be really difficult to find value in any of the games. However, this week I was very surprised with some of the odds. Maybe the books know something I don’t but there seemed to be some value this week. With that in mind, time to take a look at the final weekend of MLS action in May.
MLS Betting Tips – Week 13
MLS Betting – Game Week 13 Preview
New York Red Bulls vs DC United
Since May 7th the New York Red Bulls have played 6 matches. In the same time period, DC has effectively only played 4 (they played all subs in the open cup game against New York). Red Bulls just went with a starting lineup of strong players against Charlotte in the midweek while DC was free to relax. You can see the evidence of exhaustion in the recent results in league play. They have just 3 points from their last 4 games including a loss to bottom feeder Miami and a draw with Chicago. Over the course of the season, New York is simply a better team than DC, but given the factors at play here and the odds making New York a heavy favourite, don’t be surprised if DC gets something out of this game. I also expect goals in this game, DC have conceded multiple goals in 6 of the last 7 in all competitions.
Toronto vs Chicago
Toronto has really struggled to get on the scoresheet recently. Osorio made his return against DC and they were able to find a pair of goals, a similar story occurred in the midweek in the Canadian Championship. The first team offence came in during the second half and found a pair of goals. Chicago has been getting ripped apart ever since the loss to Union Omaha in the US Open Cup, so I have no idea why they would be a road favourite in this game. The best play may be to look for a draw, but I actually think the home team has a slight edge in the draw no bet market, especially as dogs. This will be a totally different team once they get Pozuelo healthy and Insigne in a little over a month. Probably going to be decent value until the bookmakers adjust.
MLS Betting – Over 2.5 Goals Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Minnesota
I get it, NYCFC has been on an absolute tear since getting knocked out of the CONCACAF Champions league. They have won 8 of the 9 games they have played in all competitions. Take a look at that schedule and tell me which of those wins is really impressive though. The 2-0 win at home against the Crew is probably the best of those wins and it doesn’t come close to the difficulty they face this weekend. Playing in Minnesota is no joke especially with them coming off a win away to Dallas. New York is a heavy favourite for being a road team, and the numbers just don’t justify it. A draw is probably a good result for the Pigeons but I think the Loons can hand them their first loss since Seattle.
LA Galaxy vs Austin
The Galaxy’s whitehot start has slowed down some over the last few weeks, while Austin has continued to put in solid performances. It is true that LA won in Austin a few weeks ago, but Austin had pretty firm control of that game throughout and were unlucky not to come away with something. Add to this exactly the same point that we made about the Red Bull vs DC game. LA have played 6 times since 05/08 including this midweek while Austin has played just 4 times. Don’t expect a ton of goals in this game but take the value on the visitors as big underdogs.
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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.
