Ligue 1 France Week 38 Analysis | Ligue 1 Betting Tips

Lille vs Rennes

Lille are the favourites in the odds here.  I can see how that shook out.  However, I am not sure that is how it plays out in real life.  Admittedly, Lille have been playing as well as they have done all season in their last few games.  They beat a stalling Nice side 3-1, Jonathan David finally managed to score.  They also did not play too badly in their 2-1 loss to Monaco, only Aurelien Tchouameni’s brilliance split the sides.  They certainly have no pressure anymore, they cannot qualify for Europe any longer.  Plus, the likes of Sven Botman, Renato Sanches and Jonathan David are possibly playing their farewell game for the club.  Will that affect their focus or motivate them to perform?  Hard to tell.  In the meantime, the Rennes juggernaut has stalled just a little recently.  By stalling, I mean compared to their previous form.  They are still playing well but have lost three in their last 9 and drawn 1.  However, they dealt with Marseille last week at a canter.  They also don’t have any major injury concerns and they also have Doku and Sulemana back available.  I imagine Rennes will throw the kitchen sink at this game.  If other results go against them and Lille win they could fall out of the European places.  Both Strasbourg and Nice are two points behind them.  With all that being said, I think Rennes will win this one. They have more at stake and more talent at their disposal.

Ligue 1 – Over 2.5 Goals – Betting Odds

Marseille vs Strasbourg

A huge game for Marseille.  There will be some organisational shock that they have allowed second place to slip.  They had that position in their hands for so long, they were even still mathematically in the title race for a long stretch despite PSG’s dominance.  And now, Monaco sit above them, level on points but with a 4 goal better goal difference.  The odds have OM as major favourites here.  Their creative talisman, Dimitri Payet is done for the season.  Further, one of their defensive rocks, William Saliba, is suspended for this game.  And as we have seen, when Sampaoli shuffles the pack the backups don’t often hit the mark.  European qualification is guaranteed but to miss out on the Champions League would be a major blow.  They have lost 2 of their last 3 and were thoroughly outclassed and comfortably beaten by Rennes last week.  Fatigue is definitely a problem for them.  Strasbourg have had a wonderful season.  Beyond their own wildest expectations.  Julian Stephan has done a stunning job with a solid if unspectacular squad. I fear though that they may be burning out.  It has taken so much effort both mental and physical to get this far, they can still make Europe but to have OM stood in their way is a daunting prospect.  RCS have drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 9 with 5 wins as well.  That is not bad form but they have looked a bit rough around the edges.  I think they may well take Marseille to the wire but won’t have enough in reserve to beat Marseille.  They can expect a draw at best but an OM win is the far more likely result here, a good pick.