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Ligue 1 France Week 37 Analysis | Ligue 1 Betting Tips

 

Genesis is an expert on all things French football and runs an excellent Twitter channel here. There is a whole lot more to Ligue 1 than simply PSG, Messi, Mbappe and Neymar.  It is increasingly becoming a highly entertaining league with a wealth of young and exciting talent.

Each week, Genesis will be sharing his inside knowledge on the happenings within French Football and Ligue 1, so you can be well equipped to spot value betting opportunities each week.

 

 

Week 37 – Ligue 1 Betting Tips | French Football Betting

It’s crunch time in Ligue 1.  Two game weeks to go.  And it is all yet to be settled at the bottom and in the European places. 

This week I will take a look at three games where the odds seem a little too heavily in one team’s favour. 

Before that, a quick look back at last week.  I predicted that, against the stated odds, Monaco would beat Lille and they did thanks to two Aurelien Tchouameni strikes.  I said that Lyon would beat Metz by two clear goals.  That’ll teach me never to trust Lyon, bottom of the league Metz won 3-2! I thought that Lorient would put up a fight but still lose to Marseille.  Marseille won 3-0.  Finally, I said that Lens would sneak past Reims and keep their European dream alive.  They did just that winning 2-1 having gone 1-0 down.  Now, onto game week 37.

 

Check out our mid-season review of the 2022 Ligue 1 season here

 

Here are the latest betting odds for Ligue 1 at the time of publishing:

 

 

Lyon vs Nantes

Lyon are heavy favourites here but the big issue as proven last week is that the result will largely be determined by which Lyon actually turns up.  Will it be the Lyon that beat Montpellier 5-2 and Marseille 3-0 recently?  Or the Lyon that lost 2-1 to Brest and 3-2 to Metz last weekend?  Admittedly, Lyon have won 3 of their last 5 games.  However, you only need to have watched them last week against lowly Metz to see how fickle their high defensive line can be.  There are also clearly problems behind the scenes.  This week’s expose by L’Equipe newspaper shows tension between players, between players and management and between the hierarchy too.  Despite all of this club Chairman Jean Michel Aulas has seemingly confirmed that manager Peter Bosz will stay for one more season at least.  That news plus the fact that Lyon are now out of the race for European places means that there is nothing to play for anymore this season.  Everyone’s minds will be on next season.  That favours Nantes.  Despite having won the Cup and guaranteed Europa League football next season, Nantes still put rampant Rennes to the sword midweek.  That should concern Lyon.  Nantes are clearly not yet ‘on the beach’ as I suggested they might be.  Further, that was a heavily rotated Nantes team.  Quentin Merlin, Randal Muani, and Moses Simon were all on the bench.  I imagine they all come back into the side to face Lyon making Nantes even more potent and pacey up front.  It is hard to predict a winner here.  There will be multiple goals.  But the odds are too much in Lyon’s favour in my view.

 

 

 

 

Ligue 1 – Both Teams To Score – Betting Odds

 

Bordeaux vs Lorient

For 50 minutes on Wednesday evening, Bordeaux were officially a Ligue 2 team.  With St Etienne ahead against OGC Nice the deal was done.  However, a remarkable second-half comeback by Les Aiglons saw them run out 4-2 winners eventually.  That means that Bordeaux remain, by the skin of their teeth, a Ligue 1 side for now.  Rock bottom of the table, they cannot make it out of the relegation zone but they can just about make it into the relegation playoff place if they win out.  That is not going to be easy.  They have only won 1 of their last 14 games.  And that win was a 3-1 win against fellow relegation candidate Metz. In those last 14 games Bordeaux have lost 6-1 (Lyon), 5-3 (Nantes) and 4-1 (Angers).  They have conceded 89 goals this season in the league, a record.  The odds have Bordeaux as a major favourite here against Lorient.  I think that is a risky bet.  Yes, Bordeaux are at home but their home stadium has become a hostile place for them to play.  The fans, if they even turn up, have turned against the team.  Lorient, have shown some fight recently.  They have won 2 in their last 6.  Yes, they were soundly beaten by Marseille last week but they were not totally played off the park.  They created chances against OM and do generally create chances.  Lorient are 7 points ahead of Bordeaux and are out of the relegation zone.  They are not out of trouble though.  St Etienne are only 3 points behind with a far superior goal difference.  Lorient still have everything to play for, I worry that Bordeaux have already given up.  Again, I predict goals for both sides.  Picking a winner is too hard.  But I certainly do not agree with the odds so heavily stacked in favour of Bordeaux.

 

 

 

 

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Ligue 1 – Over 2.5 Goals – Betting Odds

 

Rennes vs Marseille

The game of the weekend.  Potentially, bearing in mind what is at stake, the game of the season.  Qualification for the Champions League stands at risk.  Rennes are major favourites in the odds.  I do not agree.  Nantes downed Rennes in midweek in an entertaining game.  That loss to Nantes was only Rennes’ 3rd in their last 12.  They are a major attacking threat, only PSG have scored more this season in the league.  However, they are decimated in defence and are showing vulnerabilities.  They need to win this game.  Monaco’s charge and Nice’s ability to scrape wins has seen Rennes slip to 5th place on 62 points, one point behind Nice and three behind Monaco.  They need to beat OM to give themselves the best chance to catch those two ahead of them. Marseille are also still fighting hard to retain 2nd place and automatic qualification for the Champions League.  Monaco are breathing down their necks and have an identical goal difference and an easy fixture this weekend against Brest.  OM are missing their key man in Dimitri Payet and have other injury concerns, Gerson and Bakambu amongst them.  I think this will be a lot closer than the odds suggest.  I have a funny feeling Marseille might sneak it but I can’t reject any outcome.  What I am certain about is that it will be a superb game to watch as there is so much at stake and both teams are fascinating to watch.

 

 

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