A question that has arisen frequently has been around half time score lines and whether they influence the probability of goals in the second half.Â
So we decided to tackle this question in a few different ways, starting today by looking at the most common half time score line.
Â
To access the database and data used in this analysis, you will need to be a full member of Predictology.
Â
Predictology – The Ultimate Football Betting Toolkit
Â
– Build Profitable Betting Strategies
– 18 Prediction Models
– Deep Insights
– Spot The Bookies Mistakes – With Our Value Bet Finder
– Automate Your Betting & Trading Strategies with BF Bot Manager
– In-Play Alerts
– Telegram Alerts
 – Bet Tracker
– Match Shortlists – Easy To Follow Trading Selections
Â
With Predictology, you can trade and bet like a professional
Â
Â
Half Time Scores – Analysis
We have used the our AI Match Analysis database to conduct this analysis. Members of Predictology can access the same data to conduct their own analysis.
To do so, you would navigate from the members area and hover over the Match Shortlists.
Â
This will show a dropdown and you would select “AI REPORT”
Â
Â
We have taken a sample size of 44,125 matches which should give us ample data to analyse.
First, we simply went through the database and recorded the number of matches that reach half time with each score line.
If you have been football trading or betting for any period of time, you’ll likely know that there is an average of 1 goal in the first half and roughly 1.5 goals in the second half, giving us an approx. average of 2.5 goals a game.
In our sample, the average number of goals in the first half was 1.17 goals, so pretty much in line with expectations.
With this in mind, it is perhaps not all together surprising that the most popular half time score was 0-0 (31.33%), followed by 1-0 (19.66%) and then a slight drop off, indicating home advantage strength, to 0-1 at 16.19%.
One other interesting point to note is that the likelihood of 1-1 is almost 4% more likely than 2-0. So with the right game analysis, the potential to place a lay on the leading team in the half time market when 1-0 / 0-1 could present some very good, low risk trading opportunities at times.
Like this one:
Â
Â
How Can The Half Time Score Help Us In Our Football Trading?
One of the most common trades new football traders try to make is looking for games that are 0-0 at half time, looking for goals in the second half.
However, the 0-0 scoreline is the LEAST likely scoreline to produce 1 goal or more in the second half (74.14%).
In comparison, the half time scoreline which had the STRONGEST indicator for second half goals was 0-3, which had a 82.76% chance of at least 1 goal in the second half. Almost 12% more likely.
The 0-3 scoreline also has a 53.94% and 20.20% probability for 2 and 3 second half goals respectively.
This information alone will not help us become profitable football traders but understanding the key nuances and underlying metrics of football will give you a solid sign post to incorporate into your football trading.
For example, if you have a strategy that works well for you in the second half. Have you gone back and analysed your results to see how successful it is based on the half time score or the number of first half goals? Perhaps removing games that are 0-0 at half time from your trades could improve your success rate and return on investment?
Â
Â
Find Value In The First Half Markets For Our Football Bets
As we mentioned in our guide to Correct Score Trading, we can work out what our target odds (true probability) should be for any market once we know the percentage figure. We can quickly convert that to decimal odds in the following way:
If our strike rate is 42% strike rate, we can convert this into a decimal odds with this easy formula
Decimal Odds = 1/(Our %(42) /100)
In other words = 1/(42/100) = Decimal odds, which is 2.38.
So lets now take our earlier data and convert the probabilities to the decimal odds like so:
Â
So now, in theory, if a match has a Half Time score market and you can find 0-0 available at a price above 3.19, then you are getting value.Â
Now, we don’t advocate simply blindly following this as the volume of games will be significant and will greatly increase variance. However it is a solid starting point and if you have additional information supporting a particular bet or trade then this can be very useful.
Similarly, if you have a bet or trade you want to make, doing this quick check can act as a final review and approval of a planned trade or bet as you will be confirming your opinion and ensuring you are getting value at the same time.
Lastly, we can aggregate this and look at the Half Time 1 X 2:
Â
So again, for example, if you fancy Team A to win but the odds are shorter than you like. You could look to the HT market and see if they are positive value to start strongly and to be winning by half time.
Â
In the Art Of Football Betting (And Trading), we discuss several first half betting and trading strategies that are far more effective (and profitable) then simply looking to bet Over 0.5 First Half Goals during the first half. You can check it out here
Â
Â
What Can The Half Time Score Tell Us About Second Half Football Trading?
In part two of our analysis we will be digging deeper into the numbers to give you more analysis and insights to inform and improve your football trading.
Keep an eye out for Part 2 soon: “Predicting Second Half Goals”
Â