How We Trade The Correct Score Market

Today we are going to show you a quick and easy way that you can starting Trading the Correct Score market successfully.

To replicate this approach, you will need to a full member of Predictology.

 

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Use The Match Shortlists To Trade The Correct Score Markets

One way that you can begin profitably trading the Correct Score Markets is by using the Predictology Match Shortlists

From the members area, simply select Match Shortlists.

 

Then select the Match Shortlists Tab, like so:

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Analysing The Results To Prepare Our Correct Score Trading

For the purposes of today’s strategy, we are going to look at the Over 1.5 Goals shortlist and see if this will help us in identify potential matches for correct score trading.

 

 

Once downloaded you will have a report similar to the above and we can quickly see that our Over 1.5 goals have been on a good run recently, with it being profitable even by simply betting pre-match.

 

But that is not our focus for today, what we want to know is whether this shortlist can provide us with suitable guidance for profitable correct score trades, which we will look at now in the next section.

 

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What are the most popular Correct Scores

Any of the analysis outlined below is easy to do in Excel using Filter options and all the data was put together in around 10 minutes. 

First, just to give ourselves a baseline, we compiled the total goal ratios for the Over 1.5 goals filter:

In our sample, we have 280 matches and we can see that our shortlist is getting 2 goals or more in 80% of the games and 3 goals or more 54% of the time. So we’re definitely focusing on the right profile of games.

Next we totted up the popular score line frequencies.

The most frequently occurring score lines are 

• 1-0
• 1-1
• 2-0
• 2-1

By combining these scores we can see that, on average, we will be right 45% of the time.

However, despite the popularity of 1-0, these are games we are EXPECTING goals in. So we would drop the 1-0 score line and replace it with the next best, which is 3-0 at 8%

So our revised score lines gives us a 42% chance of winning.

This is a great start, but there are a couple more steps we need to take to make sure that we have a viable, profitable and value based approach to use.

4-0 and 4-1 was also surprisingly frequent, albeit over a relatively small sample, and could be worth monitoring in future.

 

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Finding VALUE in the Correct Score markets for Football Trading.

With the known 42% strike rate we now have a baseline but we first need to convert this into a decimal odds, which is easy to do with this formula

Decimal Odds = 1/(Our %(42) /100)

In other words = 1/(42/100) = Decimal odds, which is 2.38.

Now we need to find a way to back the correct score options in an optimal way.

 

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Dutching the Correct Score Markets

We want to be able to back our Correct Score options with adjusted stakes so that we are returning the same amount on each option.

This is easily done by using a dutching calculator, such as this one: 

You would simply enter the available odds for each correct score market, enter your total stake and it will tell you how much to place on each score, to ensure an equal return should any option be correct.

If you are using Betfair, you can also select the “Stake” function and it will do the maths for you.

BUT

Before you rush off and place any bets or correct score market trades, we want to make sure that we are getting VALUE for our correct score trade.

 

And that is why the figure of 2.28 (42%) that we mentioned above is so important.

 

To find “value” we want to be getting potential returns higher that 2.38. If we are, then we know we are backing the most likely outcomes in the match AND ensuring we are getting a better price that the true probability. Or in other words, we are getting value for our football correct score trade. 

 

Let’s do a live example to demonstrate what we mean.

 

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Correct Score Trading – Demonstration

As it is an International fixture break while I am writing this, we have limited options available but their are two games which we could apply this to.

The match we have chosen from our shortlist is PSV Eindhoven vs RKC Waalwijk. The price on over 1.5 at the time of looking was just 1.08 and around 1.12 on the exchanges, neither of which is of interest to us.

However, when a match is significantly expecting goals, we can often find value in the Correct Score Markets. I made a quick note of the scores, which were:

1-1 at 21.00

2-0 at 8.60

3-0 at 8.40

2-1 at 12.50

Now we have this information, we would jump over to the calculator that we mentioned and enter the odds for CS

We can quickly see that by dutching these four score lines we are getting decimal odds of 2.76, or a profit of 1.76 on any of those score lines.

Our target odds was 2.38 so we are getting clear value on the correct score market. In fact we are getting close to 16% value, which is excellent.

So how did our Correct Score Trade Go?

PSV had rested a few players for this game, ahead of their Leicester match in midweek. It was 1-0 at the break and things were looking good.

Around 55-60 minutes, we were able to get our target odds to remove the liability from the game. As it happens, around this time PSV brought on their star players including Gakpo and Sangare. So there was the potential for the game opening up which reinforced our decision.

This left us with a solid profit on 2-0, very big profit if Waalwijk could come back into the game at 1-1 or 2-1. With a smaller profit on 3-0.

At this point we could step a way from the market and simply let things run. As it happens, Waalwijk had a goal disallowed for offside on 84 minutes, which would have been fantastic. In the end though, the game finished 2-0 and we walked away with a great profit and a 90% return on our investment.

Correct Score Betting – Set & Forget

We always advocate trading the matches live if possible, and remember, you do not have to trade EVERY match. Simply pick one or two on a day that suits your availability and if the odds are suitable, you have your match to trade.

>> Worried you are trading too many football matches? Read our guide on how to increase your football trading profits by trading LESS games

However, there will be times where the odds are simply too attractive yet, you know you will not be available live. In this scenario, you absolutely can do a set and forget correct score bet.

It works in exactly the same way as the above outlines but you stop once you place your initial stake into the correct score market.

In the above, RB Leipzig was again looking very appealing on the Correct Score markets but we weren’t available live. So we place our full stake and simply checked the game later in the day. In this example, we hit the 3-0 scoreline and walked away with a 170% profit. 

We hope you find this correct score market guide useful. Please do let us know in the comments what you thought about it plus any requests for future betting markets or trading guides.

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