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Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.
Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.
His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.
If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here.
Last week was a great week. We saw a few upsets, Charlotte nearly got their first point, and the Sounders and Galaxy played an early game of the year candidate. Now we move on to week 4. Here are some things to keep in mind as we go through this week’s picks.
MLS Month 1 Review – International Break
We have reached the international break and it seems like a good time to take a breath and assess. Today we will take a look at the teams who are impressing and the teams who have disappointed. We will also keep our eyes on the value picks moving forward and some teams who may be worth cashing out on at this point. Plus we have a bonus pick from the weekend’s small slate. Just a note, we will be using the odds from my local book, odds may be different from your book which may change the value. In my experience MLS future’s odds vary widely from book to book so check a few before you put anything down. Vamos!
MLS Betting: Which Clubs Stock Is On The Rise
Columbus Crew
It’s an even year so we really shouldn’t be surprised that Caleb Porter’s Crew are on the right path. The Crew are off to a magnificent start, Yaw Yeboah has been a great addition and Zelarayan has been an early MVP candidate. Zela was able to avoid a major injury this weekend. After coming off the field without a sub late in the last game it looked like he may be hurt pretty bad, but he is only going to miss a week or two. Ettiene has also been playing out of his mind, Let’s see if they can keep things rolling.
Chicago Fire
It seems like Shaqiri has really lit a fire (no pun intended) under the rest of this team. This was a team that lost quite a bit of talent this offseason and didn’t make a ton of additions. However, credit must be given to Shaqiri and new coach Ezra Hendrickson for getting this team to play hard. They still need more talent to really compete this season for a title, but they have gone from bottom of the east to serious contenders to get into the playoffs.
MLS Betting – Which Clubs Stock Is Falling?
Vancouver Whitecaps
It’s been a rough start to 2022 for Vancouver. It isn’t so much the road losses that are worrying, it’s how bad they have looked during those losses. In 2 of the games they have been thoroughly routed, they also lost to a pretty poor Houston squad. The talent is there but they aren’t playing together at all right now. The schedule doesn’t get any easier over the next few games either. They host Sporting and Portland before 3 straight road games.
San Jose Earthquakes
This is a team that brought in some nice pieces over the offseason. They have some good depth and they really should be contending in the Western Conference. So far though the story has been the friction between Mattias Almydea and the front office. It seems like he doesn’t want to be there and they don’t want him there but neither side wants to fully move on. If we do see a coaching change midseason, San Jose could really come on. For now though, they are one of the 3 worst teams in the league.
MLS Betting – Buy Low
Orlando City
Orlando started off ok, a few were surprised by a home loss to Cincy, but they did beat LA Galaxy away on their way to 7 points from the first 4. I don’t think a ton has really changed with this team from the preseason expectations, yet they come in at 41.00 to win the title. Facundo Torres has looked really good so far, Kara looks like he will settle into the league as well and the defence is pretty much unchanged from last year’s solid group. They may need one more attacking piece to break out (or be signed over the summer) between Michel, Pato, and Van Der Water to look really dangerous, but this team will be a nightmare to play come playoff time.
MLS Betting – Sell High
New York Red Bulls
I know, it’s a little biased to say that your team’s biggest rival is a sell high candidate but hear me out. At 15.00 New York is going off as the 7th best team in the league. Their two wins are against teams at the bottom of their conferences, and they have lost and drawn two home games against decent teams. All this with Lewis Morgan, Patrick Klimalya, and Frankie Amaya playing absolutely out of their minds. This is a young team with some nice pieces that could be good in spurts but it’s a stretch for me to think these guys will continue playing this well
MLS Betting Tips – Charlotte vs FC Cincinnati
We have picked every Charlotte game so far this season so even though it’s an off week for most of the league I had to keep the streak alive. The key here is International Call-ups. Remember Cincy’s defence leaves something to be desired, they have shipped a goal in every game this season. Now they lose their best defender to International Duty. On the other side both Makoun and Franco will be playing for their countries. Meanwhile all the forwards for both teams should be available (check on Swiderski and Brenner pregame to make sure) Over 2.5 is 1.88 and I think that represents pretty solid value. If I have to pick a winner I would lean towards Cincy they are starting to get the high octane offense going. It’s always tough on the road but the International call ups hurt Charlotte more than Cincy.
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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.
