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Ligue 1 France Week 28 Analysis | Ligue 1 Betting Tips

 

Genesis is an expert on all things French football and runs an excellent Twitter channel here. There is a whole lot more to Ligue 1 than simply PSG, Messi, Mbappe and Neymar.  It is increasingly becoming a highly entertaining league with a wealth of young and exciting talent.

Each week, Genesis will be sharing his inside knowledge on the happenings within French Football and Ligue 1, so you can be well equipped to spot value betting opportunities each week.

 

 

Week 28 – Ligue 1 Betting Tips | French Football Betting

As with last week, I will take a look at some of the more interesting games in game week 28 where I think the odds do or maybe don’t necessarily match my expectations.  Last week I predicted Nice to give PSG a hard time against the predicted odds and they did, winning 1-0 with a late Andy Delort goal.  I also backed Rennes to beat Angers and Nantes to scrape past Montpellier.  I got the Lyon – Lorient game wrong.  Lorient fell to a 4-1 loss.  You can’t win them all!

Check out our mid-season review of the 2022 Ligue 1 season here

 

Here are the latest betting odds for Ligue 1 at the time of publishing:

Let’s take a look at the matchups I am focussing on in GW28

 

LILLE v ST ETIENNE

This is a fascinating one.  Lille have won two games on the trot, doing so for the first time in the league since December.  Their last game was a 4-0 drilling of Clermont Foot, a great result against a team who have caused big clubs trouble this season.  St Etienne are though staging their very own great escape.  Having been absolutely diabolical earlier this season under Claude Puel, they have now only lost once in their last five games.  New coach Pascal Dupraz has a reputation for being a motivator and has at least one previous great escape from relegation on his CV.  He has solidified St Etienne bringing in Mangala at the back and putting his faith in the young CB Mickael Nade.  That and he has also reverted to a much more solid-looking midfield.  Indeed, the midfield battle will be key in this game as Renato Sanches has been, as predicted, a game-changer for Lille since his return from injury.  If St Etienne can quell his threat then they will be in with a great chance of staging an upset.  It would be risky to go against the odds on this one, but I have this game being less heavily tilted in Lille’s favour.

 

MONTPELLIER v NICE

The odds have Montpellier as a decent favourite here.  I would beg to differ.  Nice are second in the league for a reason.  Montpellier have now only won 2 games in their last 9 after losing out to Nantes last week.  They offered very little against Nantes who suffocated any threat from the usually dangerous Teji Savanier.  Nice, under the magnificent leadership of Christophe Galtier, are master suffocaters.  They are superbly organised across defence and midfield.  They retain the best defensive record in the league and have only lost twice in their last 14 games. They hassle and harry trying to steal the ball in their own half. And once they turn the ball over they are lethal on the counter attack. Clinical if not prolific.  Where they can suffer though is playing against a low block or a team who is happy to cede possession.  Neither of these tactics sit comfortably in Montpellier’s armoury under manager Olivier Dall’Oglio.  As such, I would say that Nice are actually clear favourites in this game.  Montpellier, if they get lucky, could upset Galtier and his charges but it is not likely.

 

 

Ligue 1 – Both Teams To Score – Betting Odds

 

TROYES v NANTES

 

The odds have this one as being a closer game than I predict.  And of course, whilst anything can happen, Nantes are amongst the form teams in Ligue 1 at the moment. They are unbeaten in their last six and have lost only once in their last fourteen games across all competitions.  Yes, Troyes beat Bordeaux last week.  But that was the battle of the two worst teams in Ligue 1 right now.  Before that, Troyes had not won in five games.  For me, Nantes are heavy favourites here.  They have so many players playing at their best level in months, some of them at their best level ever.  From Lafont in goal, through the lesser-known Girotto, Merlin, Chirivella to the on fire Ludo Blas, Randal Muani and Moses Simon in attack.  Troyes just don’t have the talent to match Nantes.  They could strike it lucky but I really doubt it.

 

LYON v RENNES

 

This is the game of the week alongside Strasbourg v Monaco.  Lyon are set as clear favourites here. I doubted Lyon last week and they dismantled Lorient 4-1.  However, Rennes are not Lorient.  Indeed, Rennes are three points off second place and playing some wonderful attacking football.  Lyon leave themselves open to conceding chances.  For example, Lorient only had 37% possession last week but still mustered 15 shots, the same number as Lyon.  Two of those were big chances.  They cannot afford to do this against Rennes.  Martin Terrier, Gaetan Laborde and Jeremy Doku will punish them.  The problem is, Peter Bosz cannot seem to organise a solid defence. He has talent to choose from.  Castello Lukeba and Malo Gusto are having breakout seasons.  But Peter Bosz and ‘defensive cohesion’ are not often read in the same sentence, never mind the same paragraph! Conversely, Rennes have the third-best defence in Ligue 1.  They have conceded 8 less goals than Lyon.  The quartet of Traore-Aguerd-Omari-Melling is superb.  And they are shielded by the under-appreciated midfield axis of Jonas Martin and Baptiste Santamaria.  Lyon are not a prolific attacking team, nowhere near the top five attacks in the league. Rennes have scored 15 more goals than them and are on a three-game winning streak.  Even though they are away from home, I would give Rennes the edge here, though a draw is probably the most likely outcome. 

 

 

 

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