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MLS 2022 Week 2 | MLS Betting Tips

 

Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.

Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.

 

His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.

 

 

If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here. 

We got off to a good start with our analysis last week, with our outsider Favourite, Atlanta, getting off to a winning start with a 3-1 win against a strong Kansas City side.

We also said that Minnesota would cause problems at Philadelphia, which they did, in a 1-1 draw.  LA Galaxy’s fearsome attack was on full show as they ran out 3-0 winners thanks to a Carlos Vela hat-trick.

As predicted, DC United ran out easy winners (3-0) against a week Charlotte side, making their debut in MLS. It was also suggested that if you wanted goals, you should check out San Jose vs New York Red Bulls and it didn’t disappoint, with 4 goals as the Bulls won 3-1.

 

All in all a fantastic start to the column with as we start to get into the rhythm of the season, moving into week 2. However, before we get to this week’s analysis there are a few things to keep in mind from week 1.

  1. Do not overreact to the week 1 results: This is a long season filled with ups and downs, some teams had fantastic results and other teams struggled. One result contains so much noise that we can’t rely on it to change our strategy. Minnesota lost its first 4 games in 2021 before making the playoffs.
  2. Struggling CCL Teams: Week 1 was brutal on the teams in the CONCACAF Champions League, the 4 teams that played in the first round combined to score a whopping 0 goals. The remaining 4 teams have more struggles on the horizon, New England, NYCFC, Seattle, and Montreal all have midweek games directly after week 2. Expect some fairly heavy rotation and some early subs as all 4 teams will be prioritizing advancing from the quarterfinals against international competition.

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s move on to the juicy games on offer in Week 2:

*All Futures lines were obtained from Draftkings

 

MLS Betting Tips – Week 2

 

 

MLS Betting – Game Week 2 Preview

 

New England vs Dallas

The earliest game on Saturday matches (Early evening for UK viewers) sees the defending Supporters Shield winners vs. the best developer of young talent in the league. Dallas has added some nice pieces to their team but for the most part they are still extremely young and with a reliance on youth comes unpredictability in terms of results.

I don’t know that I trust them as a favorite but in this situation getting odds of 5.82 against a New England team that is likely to rotate makes a ton of sense to me. New England is probably the better team but our model likes Dallas to win 18.38% of the time and it could be even higher than that given the circumstances.

A small interest in Dallas while use the goal markets as cover could be the way to go.

 

Cincinnati vs DC United

 DC United comes into this game as a road favorite after their 3-0 demolition of Charlotte. However, DC was much less dominant against the presumptive worst team in the league than the score may indicate. Meanwhile, Cincinnati looked like they would enjoy collecting a 4th consecutive wooden spoon in week 1. At points the defending looked down right horrifying which has always been Cincy’s achilles heel. Lucho Acosta has come out and taken responsibility for the performance and has assured the fans they will bounce back. Given the bad blood between Lucho and DC United, I want to believe him. I’m going against our model and against my own fandom here but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce back performance from Cincy. Either way the storylines in this game and the promise of a bunch of goals make for an entertaining one to watch.

 

Minnesota vs Nashville

            Two teams that had really good results in week 1 square off in Minnesota. One of the big storylines to watch here is the weather. Currently, there is an 85% chance of precipitation and the temperature at game time is projected to be right at freezing. This sounds miserable, and given both teams are fairly solid in the back I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of goals. Also, Nashville are the kings of draws, they had 18 of them last season. They would be thrilled to come from cold, icy Minnesota with a point.

 

Vancouver vs. NYCFC

            Vancouver comes off a really poor showing in Columbus needing a rebound against the defending champs. Keep in mind though this is likely to be a rotated NYCFC team so Vancouver may only have to see Maxi Morales for half an hour or less. Furthermore, Vancouver is ridiculously tough to beat at BC place (They were 7-1-1 last season there). I would actually make Vancouver slight favourites in this game but they are fairly significant underdogs.

 

Charlotte vs. LA Galaxy

We are likely to see an MLS attendance record be set in Charlotte’s first ever home game. The atmosphere should be electric, this is a game you have to watch if possible. While I think Charlotte scores their first ever goal and the place goes absolutely nuts (Yordy Reyna scores it), there is still a gigantic talent disparity on the field. Chicharito, Douglas Costa, and Kevin Cabral are a whole lot better than Estrada, Flores, and Yow whom Charlotte conceded 3 goals to last week. It is at home in front of a raucous crowd, but fading Charlotte worked last week so we are going for it again this week. 

 

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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.

 

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