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We’re delighted to add a new expert to the team in the form of Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – who is serious Major League Soccer expert.
Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.
His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.
MLS Season is finally here and if you missed it, you can check out our deep dive into the forthcoming 2022 MLS Season here.
Today, we take a look at the opening round of fixtures and try idenfity the most interesting matches and some potential betting opportunities.
*All Futures lines were obtained from Draftkings
MLS Betting Tips – Futures Betting 2022
The grass is cut, the exhibitions are over, and the rosters are settled (mostly). It’s finally time to get down to business with the MLS season just days away. MLS teams have spent over 100 million dollars combined on transfer fees alone. This doesn’t include major signings like Lorenzo Insigne, Douglas Costa, and Deandre Yedlin who have come in on free transfers. Needless to say the balance of power in the MLS has shifted significantly in the 71 Days since NYCFC lifted the MLS cup. However the odds remain fairly tied to last year’s finishing results, which allows us some opportunity to find undervalued teams that we can look to cash out after a good season or hold all the way to the end for a significant payoff.
First a look at the MLS 2022 Betting Odds: LAFC 7.5, NYCFC 8, Sounders 8.5, Revs 10, Union 11, Nashville 13, Rapids 15, Crew 15, Atlanta 15, Toronto 17, SKC 17, Red Bulls 18, Galaxy 18, DC 23, Timbers 26, Min 36, RSL 41, Orlando 41, Dallas 41, Charlotte 41, Vancouver 51, Miami 51, Montreal 66, Dynamo 66, Quakes 81, Fire 81, Austin 81, Cincy 101
The Longest Shot could make the playoffs:
Cincinnati has been historically, absurdly bad at the goalkeeping position during their first 3 years in the league. Since FC Cincinnati joined MLS, their keepers have allowed 30.7 more goals than their post-shot xG.If they just get average play from Alec Kann this season (the numbers suggest he is much better than average but it is a small sample size) and Brenner takes another step forward, this team starts to look like a team fighting for a playoff spot. Anyone who can make the playoffs is a value at 101 odds.
Last year’s undervalued team is still undervalued
The odds suggest that Vancouver is the 11th best team in the Western Conference. However, for a team that didn’t get to play a home game until August 21st last year, still made the playoffs despite that, and then only lost 1 piece from that team (Max Crepeau), Vancouver represents excellent value. They went 7-1-1 in the 9 actual home games they played and 5 of those games came against playoff teams. Now, going into year two with Vanni Sartini and being able to take full advantage of all their home games, Vancouver is a team with the talent to cash the 50/1 MLS cup future.
Best Value of the “Favorites”
I like Seattle quite a bit this year, but at 8.5 there isn’t a whole lot of value in their futures bet. However, Atlanta is a team that I like just as much who is currently going off at 15. They have all the ingredients to get back to their incredibly successful first few years in the league. An established veteran GK, a solid back line anchored by a USMNT player, a ton of quality depth in the midfield, and potentially the most potent attack in the league. There are some questions like if Josef Martinez can get back to his pre-injury level or if the backline has the depth to sustain a few injuries and still perform. However, we could see Atlanta scoring goals for fun and winning the Eastern Conference which would give them a massive home field advantage in the playoffs. It wouldn’t be impossible for a team to knock them out in Atlanta, but it sure would be difficult.
Now that we are done with season long futures we can officially start to take a look at the games in Week 1:
MLS Betting – Game Week 1 Preview
Philadelphia vs Minnesota
Many people will want to take a crack at the first game of the brand new season to get the bankroll up and running. Our system sees some value with Minnesota United going on the road to Philadelphia and I would agree. Minnesota has essentially the same team they had last year which hopefully means they will get off to a pretty fast start. Meanwhile, primary playmaker Jamiro Monteiro and primary goal scorer Kacper Pryzbalyko are gone to Philly. The load will be left to young talented players and while I believe in the coaching staff and the players long term they may get off to a slower start than some expect. This game may well be lower scoring as well given that the home team will have a brand new attack and neither team was particularly potent going forward or particularly leaky in defence last season.
LAFC vs Colorado Rapids
LAFC will be bringing a fierce attack and relentless pressure up against a Colorado team that at worst may be rotated pretty heavily and at best will have played a must win game just 3 days before. Add in the fact that Colorado is already missing Brian Galvan to a season ending injury and Kellyn Acosta gets a chance to play against his old team and this matchup looks favorable for the black and gold.
DC United vs Charlotte
Inaugural matches have not been kind to teams in the past and Charlotte may struggle in this one. In the last 10 inaugural matches for a team in the MLS the new team has only achieved 1 victory (a particularly good LAFC team in 2018) and the only two outside of LAFC who avoided defeat were NYCFC and Orlando who played each other in their first match back in 2015. The other 7 teams lost by an average margin of 2.57 to .57. DC are also particularly tough to play against because of the pressure they can put teams under. It takes a well oiled machine to break the DC press and Charlotte is trying to start the car for the first time. I expect a few goals to be scored in this one and DC to eventually come out on top quite comfortably at home.
San Jose vs. NY Red Bulls
People seem to forget this because the wheels fell off San Jose towards the middle of the season, but they are very difficult to play early on. When the legs are still fresh and there isn’t a ton of heat to drain them quickly, San Jose’s system consistently creates problems for other teams. Playing at home as an underdog against a team coming across the country is a good look. Red Bulls have a similar pressure system so there should be plenty of goals, it’s a good game to watch if you like to see the ball in the back of the net.
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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.
